A functioning Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan Customs Union (BRK-CU) would comprise the bulk of the FSU economy and represent a significant step towards an attempted re-integration of the FSU – even more so if Ukraine were also to join. There are still important structural differences in intra-regional compared to extra-regional trade of these countries, regarding exports in particular. The existing specialization patterns and comparative advantages may – apart from purely political considerations – provide some economic rationale for closer trade integration. Our difference-in-difference gravity-ba...more

A multi-level approach to test for the determinants of income polarization both at the household as well as the country level is applied to a panel of about 300,000 households in EU countries over the period of 2003-2009. Among the policy relevant macro variables, higher progressive labour taxation and to a certain extent capital taxation is positively correlated with lower levels of income polarization. Also public expenditures on social protection, education and economic subsidies are related to a lower degree of polarization. Finally, lower unemployment, a stronger industrial base and more ...more

Trade and economic integration in the CIS: an evaluation (by Vasily Astrov, Peter Havlik and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 1-3) Keywords: trade, economic integration Countries covered: CIS Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Volume and variety of intra-bloc trade in an expanded European Union (by Neil Foster; pp. 4-10) Keywords: intra-bloc trade, expanded EU Countries covered: EU Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The gravity of cross-border R&D expenditure (by Sandra M. Leitner, Robert Stehrer and Bernhard Dachs; pp. 11-21) Keywords: R&D, gravit...more

Innovation is considered to be an important determinant of performance at the firm, industry and country level. This view is supported by empirical evidence showing the importance of innovative activities on firm and industry performance and country growth rates. The majority of the world’s R&D is concentrated in a handful of countries however, meaning that domestic innovation is of little importance for most countries. Such countries can benefit from innovation conducted elsewhere however, if knowledge and technology is diffused across borders. In this paper we survey existing literature on innovation and technology diffusion and discuss descriptive statistics on the extent of innovation and technology diffusion across countries to provide insights into the likely developments in innovation and diffusion....more

German manufacturing firms increasingly engage in service trade activities. Micro-level data show that producer service exports of German manufacturers amounted to EUR 30 billion in 2005. In particular, construction, engineering and R&D services are exported. The machinery industries and automobile and chemicals producers dominate the overall pattern. The types of services exported vary strongly across industries. Furthermore, export activities are concentrated on a few large exporters. Service exports of advertising, data processing and R&D services are found to likely support foreign affiliat...more

While up to the 1990s, R&D was still ‘an important case of non-globalization’ (Patel and Pavitt 1991), the internationalization of business R&D activities has accelerated significantly during the past two decades. R&D activities of foreign affiliates have become one of the most dynamic elements of the process of globalization. Until recently, the main recipients of cross-border R&D expenditure were developed countries, though new players have emerged lately, particularly in Asia. Against that backdrop, the paper applies a recently compiled novel data set on R&D expenditure of foreign-owned fir...more

(Reprint from: WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 85, No. 5, May 2012) Zusammenfassung Die gegenwärtige Wirtschaftskrise weist alle jene Merkmale auf, die mit finanziellen, verschuldungsbezogenen und strukturellen Aspekten von Leistungsbilanzkrisen verbunden werden. Daraus ergeben sich dauerhaft dämpfende Effekte für die Entwicklung der Gesamtnachfrage in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern, sodass sich eine nachhaltige Erholung verzögert. Die vorübergehende Belebung 2010/11 war insbesondere vom Export getragen. Deutliche Entwicklungsunterschiede zwischen den einzelnen Ländern Ostmitte...more

This paper examines the impact of offshoring on labour elasticities for a sample of 40 countries over the period 1995-2009 using the recently compiled World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Including measures of narrow and broad offshoring, as well as indicators of manufacturing and services offshoring, in conditional and unconditional labour demand equations we find that offshoring has an overall neutral or slightly positive effect on employment. This result hides differences across industry types and across employment types however, with additional results indicating a negative effect of services offshoring in many industry types. Positive effects of other offshoring measures are found in high-tech manufacturing and for high-educated employment in particular....more

For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia) will suffer a mild recession or come close to it (Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro). 2013 will be characterized by external imbalances developing anew in some countries, although these are not expected to culminate in a repetition of precipitate and disorderly rebalancing crises. The imbalances, if allowed to widen, may come to a sticky end later. The fiscal consolidation in many CESEE countries is pursued despite the revealed weakness of private consumption and investment, amid signs of flagging demand for CESEE exports....more

A major international transmission channel of productivity increases is trade in intermediate products and services. This paper analyses international rent spillovers at the industry level and for the first time investigates effects from the service sector in this international framework. The World Input-Output Database (WIOD) allows us to improve over the traditional approach of using trade in intermediates in the estimation of international spillovers by making use of input-output linkages between industries in different countries. Our results using this novel approach confirm the productivi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 22 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI continues to be of great significance for the development of the former transition economies. The domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation provides a drag on the economies. The short-lived recovery in 2011 was based mainly on external demand, which upgraded the importance of foreign investors, as they generate a major part of exports. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

The rapid growth of China in the last thirty years has had a very strong impact on the world economy. Having gone through a rapid process of structural transformation as well as international integration, China has recently improved quantity and quality of its exports. Its market share has increased dramatically, so that in 2009 China overtook Germany to become the first world exporters of goods. A recent ample literature has been discussing the likelihood of this upgrade resulting in a change in Chinese comparative advantage towards more sophisticated productions and therefore whether there are countries/sectors more subject to increased Chinese competition. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) presents an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries based on the latest update of its database. FDI is still of great importance for the development of CEECs especially as the domestic engines of economic growth are still weak, and fiscal consolidation drags on many of the economies. The economic recovery that has started in the region is mainly based on external demand, which has upgraded the role of foreign investors whose subsidiaries produce the main part of exp...more

Based on recent approaches of measuring the factor content of trade when intermediates are traded we decompose value added trade and its components like capital and labour and further subcomponents (ICT and Non-ICT capital, educational attainment categories) distinguishing between direct, indirect and re-imports and –exports of value added and trade in factors. This adds to the literature by simultaneously considering both exports and imports allowing to focus on patterns and dynamics of net value added trade and its components rather than vertical specialisation patterns based on exports. As an extension we differentiate net value added trade flows resulting from trade in intermediate and final goods. The analysis can further be broken down to the industry level and bilateral trade relations. Empirically we present results of an application of the proposed decomposition method based on the recently compiled World Input-Output Database (WIOD) covering 40 countries and 35 industries over the period 1995-2006. We show that direct value added exports and imports dominate but the indirect part was increasing over time. This also holds for trade in factors with for example higher increases observed for high-educated labour. Patterns of trade in net value added closely resemble net trade flows but there are distinct patterns when looking at individual factors. For example, NAFTA countries are net exporters of high-educated labour mostly to EU-15 but have increasingly become net importers of low-educated labour from China. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

In the process of catching up to the EU income levels, emerging European economies built up external imbalances and attracted large capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis. Many attribute the severity of the crisis to excessive capital inflows. This paper examines the effect of structural distribution of FDI on external vulnerability - trade account balance in particular - to see if a concentration in FDI in nontradables leads to large external imbalance as is often perceived. Our study finds that this is indeed the case: trade account deficit is reduced by 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP when a share of tradable FDI to total FDI increases by 1 per cent. We also study what determines the pattern of sectoral distribution of FDI across countries, and draw policy implications for more stable and sustainable growth strategy. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

Christian Hepenstrick, University of Zurich (UZH) This paper develops a Ricardian trade model that accounts for the empirically observed positive relation between the extensive margin of a bilateral trade flow (measured as the number of goods categories with positive volumes) and the per-capita incomes of the trading partners. The central mechanism is that richer agents consume a wider set of varieties, which leads to a positive relation between per-capita income of the importer and the extensive margin. The positive effect of exporter per-capita income, corresponding to the standard model,...more

wiiw presents its new analysis of FDI developments in 20 Central, East and Southeast European countries, based on the latest update of the wiiw FDI Database. German: Das wiiw präsentiert seine aktuelle Analyse der Entwicklung der Auslandsinvestitionen in Zentral-, Ost- und Südosteuropa, sowie den Update der "FDI Database" mit detaillierten Statistiken über Auslandsinvestitionen in 20 Ländern....more