The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

Higher global grain output but still fairly high food prices (by Zdenek Lukas; pp. 1-4) Keywords: agricultural production, demand for food, food prices, biofuels Countries covered: Wider Europe Topics: Sectoral studies The speed of catch-up depends on human capital (by Roman Stöllinger; pp. 5-9) Keywords: catch-up, human capital, growth accounting, threshold regressions Countries covered: non-specific Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Two transitions: a brief on analyses and policies for MENA and CESEE (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 10-12) Keywords: transition, ...more

This paper discusses the transition agenda and provides the key economic characteristics of selected Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) in comparison with selected Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE). We intend to identify some regularities in transition processes and to draw policy lessons for MENA countries. Among the key challenges facing the MENA region are job creation, fighting corruption, public sector reforms and trade diversification; the way towards a functioning market economy should not necessarily be as long and controversial as in the CESEE. MENA cou...more

The main objectives of this study are the assessment of activation policies in the Western Balkan countries in the light of the EU policy frameworks and the capacity and effectiveness of the Public Employment Services (PES) to implement modern labour market services. The general strategy of the research is to examine the existing activation policies against the background of labour market developments in the Western Balkan countries. In a further step the study identifies opportunities for regional cooperation among the individual countries of the region. ...more

Import intensities of production in the New EU Member States in 1995 and 2006 (by Leon Podkaminer; pp. 1-5) Keywords: import intensity, trade, input-output Countries covered: New EU Member States, China, Turkey, Japan, Russia, USA Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI A note on social indicators for MENA and transition countries (by Mario Holzner; pp. 6 7) Keywords: unemployment, inequality, migration Countries covered: Middle East and North Africa Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Three crises (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 8-10) Keywords: debt crisis...more

(Reprint from: WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 84, No. 5, May 2011) Zusammenfassung Das Wirtschaftswachstum belebt sich in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (MOEL) langsam, bleibt jedoch schwächer als vor der Wirtschaftskrise. Einige der kleinen, offenen Volkswirtschaften der Region wahrten durch Abwertung oder auch Produktivitätssteigerung ihre preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Der überwiegend starke Exportaufschwung trug zur Erholung der Industrieproduktion bei. Aufgrund der dynamischen Ausfuhrentwicklung und der Schwäche der Inlandsnachfrage verringerten sich die Leistungsbilanzdefizite ...more

Labour costs, tax burden and competitiveness in Austria compared with selected CEEs Summary The study analyses in an international comparison the key characteristics and recent developments of labour costs, taxation and productivity in Austria and selected CEEs (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia). The CEEs still enjoy sizeable cost advantages, yet the fast growth of their unit labour costs implies gradually deteriorating competitiveness. A comparison of the real purchasing power of net wages reveals a lower income disparity betwee...more

In the period after the political changes in the year 2000, GDP growth in Serbia was rather rapid and compares favourably with other transition countries in Southeastern Europe. It was driven mainly by the expansion of services, with industrial production and agriculture basically stagnating over the whole period. The labour market effects were similar to those in other countries going through transition: employment declined in the public sector and increased in the private sector, with the overall number of employed declining and those unemployed increasing, and also with strong increases in the number of pensioners....more

The objective of this study is to analyse employment developments in the gas and electricity sectors in seven Western Balkan Contracting Parties of the Energy Community. These are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo under UNSCR 1244/99. In addition, the impact of the liberalization of the respective markets is examined (quantitatively and qualitatively) and the most likely trends for the future development are identified....more

The outlook for the world economy has improved in the course of 2010 and the recovery has gained strength in the EU as well. The Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE) have also recovered from the crisis; the majority of them recorded positive GDP growth. On average, the recent revival of exports has been even stronger than their growth before the crisis. By way of contrast, the trends in industrial output have so far remained more or less flat. The persistent decline in construction and fixed investments – both related to the still hesitant credit markets – represents one of t...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The free movement of persons is a fundamental right guaranteed to European Union (EU) citizens which is about to change not only the size of migration flows but also the behavior of migrants regarding the duration of stay. In our empirical analysis we show that migrants who intend to live only temporary in Germany are more likely to remit a higher amount of money. As we have seen in the UK, strong remittances flows provoke fears among natives of a loss in domestic purchasing power. Using a general equilibrium model with altruistic households and imperfect labor markets, we show that Germany wi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

In line with previous literature we find that strict employment protection deters foreign direct investment. This finding is consistent with the view that rigid labor markets result in high adjustment and exit costs which discourage firm investment. Moreover, our results also show that the deterrent effect of rigid labor markets depends on the skill-intensity of a location, a result which has not been established empirically so far. ...more

As of 2008, an estimated twelve million immigrants live illegally in the United States, and large numbers of undocumented foreigners reside also in other advanced destination countries. If governments are not able or willing to stick to their official immigration policy, why do they set such a policy in the first place? The purpose of this paper is to address this apparent puzzle, by developing a political agency model, in which there is uncertainty on the potential supply of immigrants, and politicians - who face a re-election - can either share the preferences of the median voter or be captured by a pro-business lobby. We show that, if a pro-median politician is in power, illegal immigration can only occur as a result of uncertainty. If a pro-business politician sets instead the migration policy, he might find it optimal to announce a binding quota in order to be re-elected, and not enforce it in order to favor a business lobby. Thus, strategic considerations by elected politicians might play an important role in explaining the apparent inability of governments to implement o±cial immigration policies and the large resulting number of illegal immigrants....more