The recent economic downturn The decline in GDP during the recession has been concentrated in manufacturing and construction and triggered significant (though smaller) declines in basic services (distribution, hotels and restaurants, and transport). The decline in manufacturing production was particularly strong in Germany, while in Spain and Ireland as well as the Baltic states there was a pronounced decline in construction, which had expanded markedly in these countries over the years preceding the recession. Just as in previous economic downturns in the EU, the recent recession has h...more

Financial balances of the private, foreign and public sectors: long-term tendencies for the European Union (by Roman Römisch; pp. 1-6) Keywords: fiscal policy, budget deficits, investments and savings, public-private balances Countries covered: European Union Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Labour hoarding during the crisis: Evidence for selected new member states from the Financial Crisis Survey (by Sandra M. Leitner and Robert Stehrer; pp. 7-13) Keywords: labour hoarding, financial crisis, firm-level analysis Countries covered: Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, ...more

For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia) will suffer a mild recession or come close to it (Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro). 2013 will be characterized by external imbalances developing anew in some countries, although these are not expected to culminate in a repetition of precipitate and disorderly rebalancing crises. The imbalances, if allowed to widen, may come to a sticky end later. The fiscal consolidation in many CESEE countries is pursued despite the revealed weakness of private consumption and investment, amid signs of flagging demand for CESEE exports....more

This paper examines the development of exports within the expanded European Union over the period 2000-2007. The paper addresses the issues of how and why within-bloc exports have developed following accession. The paper shows that exports within CEFTA and within other accession countries have grown more quickly than those between old EU members, but that after accounting for traditional gravity determinants there has been no significant change in this behaviour following accession in 2004. As such, this is likely to reflect a natural realignment of trade patterns following the communist era, as well as the relatively stronger performance of the new entrants when compared with existing EU members. The results also indicate that much of the increase in exports within the accession countries has been due to an increase in the variety of products traded, rather than an increase in the volume of existing products....more

The transformation of international financial markets and the future of the eurozone (by John Eatwell; pp. 1-6) Keywords: Financial Markets, euro, Debt Crisis Countries covered: European Union Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy The harmonisation of banking supervision: a chokehold (by Tomasz Chmielewski and Andrzej Slawinski; pp. 7-9) Keywords: Banking Supervision, Harmonisation Countries covered: European Union Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy The impact of offshoring on the skill structure of labour demand (by Neil Foster and Robert Stehrer; pp. ...more

Slovakia after the elections (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; pp. 1-3) Keywords: Elections, Fiscal policy Countries covered: Slovakia Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Labour market issues in Europe’s Eastern and Western Balkan neighbours (by Hermine Vidovic; pp. 4-9) Keywords: Labour market, Unemployment Countries covered: SEE, CIS Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Net private savings in relation to the government’s financial balance (by Kazimierz Laski and Leon Podkaminer; pp. 10-13) Keywords: Saving, Investment, Financial balances, Fiscal policy Count...more

The share of knowledge-intensive services and products in total output and demand and in the production of advanced, but also less advanced or emerging economies, has steadily increased over time and especially so for the knowledge-intensive services. This ‘quaternization’ of the economies not only points towards the rising shares of services but also stresses the role of knowledge-intensive services and their growing importance as sources of innovation and technology and as inputs into the manufacturing process. First the study documents the important role played by services in the EU as comp...more

The European Union and the MENA countries: fostering North-South economic integration (by Sándor Richter; pp. 1-5) Keywords: North-South, economic integration Countries covered: European Union, MENA Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Europe's position in trade in knowledge-intensive business services (by Joseph Francois and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 6-12) Keywords: trade, knowledge-intensive business services Countries covered: European Union, OECD, East Asia Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI What kind of socio-economic order do we need in Euro...more

The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

Policy frameworks of the IMF, the World Bank, and the EU are discussed in order to come up with criteria of macroeconomic and financial stability and sustainability for Future Member States of the EU (candidate and potential candidate countries). The key deficiency of the EU policy framework is that it lacks a short-term stabilization policy model and instruments for adjustment, such as the IMF. It also lacks an appropriate model for investment support, though not necessarily the funds if not the instruments. The paper suggests a set of criteria for surveillance....more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

Karl Pichelmann, European Commission The EU is being mired in the most serious economic crisis since its creation. The euro area, in particular, has found itself in the middle of an almost perfect storm: (i) A vicious circle of government debt crisis, banking instabilities and weakening economic activity, each feeding each other in a dangerous feed-back loop; (ii) This downward spiral comes on top of probably long-lasting deleveraging needs of both public and private economic actors following the financial crisis of 2008/2009; (iii) But already before the crisis, the euro area ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The free movement of persons is a fundamental right guaranteed to European Union (EU) citizens which is about to change not only the size of migration flows but also the behavior of migrants regarding the duration of stay. In our empirical analysis we show that migrants who intend to live only temporary in Germany are more likely to remit a higher amount of money. As we have seen in the UK, strong remittances flows provoke fears among natives of a loss in domestic purchasing power. Using a general equilibrium model with altruistic households and imperfect labor markets, we show that Germany wi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

In the process of catching up to the EU income levels, emerging European economies built up external imbalances and attracted large capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis. Many attribute the severity of the crisis to excessive capital inflows. This paper examines the effect of structural distribution of FDI on external vulnerability - trade account balance in particular - to see if a concentration in FDI in nontradables leads to large external imbalance as is often perceived. Our study finds that this is indeed the case: trade account deficit is reduced by 0.1-0.2 per cent of GDP when a share of tradable FDI to total FDI increases by 1 per cent. We also study what determines the pattern of sectoral distribution of FDI across countries, and draw policy implications for more stable and sustainable growth strategy. ...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more

Cyrille Schwellnus, OECD (with Jens Arnold) This paper uses a stratified sample of firms across Western Europe over the period 1996-2004 to test for the existence of a link between corporate taxation and productivity. Corporate taxes may reduce incentives for productivity-enhancing innovations by reducing their post-tax returns, and may reduce incentives for risk taking by firms. In addition, corporate taxes can increase the user cost of capital and reduce incentives to invest in physical capital, which may affect productivity through technological progress embodied in new physical capital...more