Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its policy-makers in adequately addressing the structural roots of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector demand in the CESEE countries is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term either. Wherever there will be an increase in investments, it will be primarily funded via public...more

Trade and economic integration in the CIS: an evaluation (by Vasily Astrov, Peter Havlik and Olga Pindyuk; pp. 1-3) Keywords: trade, economic integration Countries covered: CIS Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Volume and variety of intra-bloc trade in an expanded European Union (by Neil Foster; pp. 4-10) Keywords: intra-bloc trade, expanded EU Countries covered: EU Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI The gravity of cross-border R&D expenditure (by Sandra M. Leitner, Robert Stehrer and Bernhard Dachs; pp. 11-21) Keywords: R&D, gravit...more

For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia) will suffer a mild recession or come close to it (Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro). 2013 will be characterized by external imbalances developing anew in some countries, although these are not expected to culminate in a repetition of precipitate and disorderly rebalancing crises. The imbalances, if allowed to widen, may come to a sticky end later. The fiscal consolidation in many CESEE countries is pursued despite the revealed weakness of private consumption and investment, amid signs of flagging demand for CESEE exports....more

Slovakia after the elections (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; pp. 1-3) Keywords: Elections, Fiscal policy Countries covered: Slovakia Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Labour market issues in Europe’s Eastern and Western Balkan neighbours (by Hermine Vidovic; pp. 4-9) Keywords: Labour market, Unemployment Countries covered: SEE, CIS Topics: Labour, Migration and Income Distribution Net private savings in relation to the government’s financial balance (by Kazimierz Laski and Leon Podkaminer; pp. 10-13) Keywords: Saving, Investment, Financial balances, Fiscal policy Count...more

The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%....more

This paper discusses the transition agenda and provides the key economic characteristics of selected Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) in comparison with selected Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE). We intend to identify some regularities in transition processes and to draw policy lessons for MENA countries. Among the key challenges facing the MENA region are job creation, fighting corruption, public sector reforms and trade diversification; the way towards a functioning market economy should not necessarily be as long and controversial as in the CESEE. MENA cou...more

For 2011 the wiiw central scenario envisages further improvements in the economic performance of those countries that were still stagnating or contracting in 2010 (Bulgaria, Latvia, Romania, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro). However, in those countries that performed reasonably well in 2010 (such as Poland and Slovakia), growth will not accelerate all that much. At a later juncture GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the region, but they will not return to the levels recorded prior to 2007. The relatively rapid growth in terms of the global output expected in 2011 will not of necessit...more

Patterns of transition (by K. Poznanski, J. Poznanska and H.Y. Liu; pp. 1-11) Keywords: transition, shock therapy, privatization, market vs. state Countries covered: CEE, CIS, East Asia Topics: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Recent trends in the quality of traded goods: NMS are closing the gaps (by N. Foster, J. Pöschl and R. Stehrer; pp. 12-19) Keywords: quality, unit value ratios, price vs. quality competition Countries covered: EU, CEE, CIS, Asia, East Asia Topics: International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI Animal spirits (by V. Gligorov; pp. 20-22) Keywords: Keynes, unc...more

The outlook for the world economy has improved in the course of 2010 and the recovery has gained strength in the EU as well. The Central, East and Southeast European countries (CESEE) have also recovered from the crisis; the majority of them recorded positive GDP growth. On average, the recent revival of exports has been even stronger than their growth before the crisis. By way of contrast, the trends in industrial output have so far remained more or less flat. The persistent decline in construction and fixed investments – both related to the still hesitant credit markets – represents one of t...more

The paper analyses the joint determinants of inequality and growth with a special emphasis on public spending structures in transition. The mutual benefit of low real interest rates, to both equity and economic development is a major result of this paper. In terms of public spending items we find a positive correlation with equity and a negative one with growth as several of the government expenditure items seem to act counter-cyclically. In the late 1990s and early 2000s the European integration process allowed most of the transition economies to aim for the best of both worlds: equity and ec...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Fasting or Feasting? Europe - Old and New - at the Crossroads, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. For the CESEE countries, wiiw expects 2012 to be a rather disappointing year. GDP growth will be rather slow – at least when judged by the past standards and the ambitions harboured only a few years ago. Some countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzego...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled New Divide(s) in Europe?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet signi...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 pe...more

In einem speziellen Kapitel („Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging“) des Konjunkturberichtes "Recovery: Limp and Battered" wird die Verschuldungsdynamik nach Sektoren (Haushalte, Unternehmen, Staat) vor und nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise untersucht und mit den GIPS-Ländern (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien) verglichen. Die Last der privaten Verschuldung hat wichtige Konsequenzen für das Ausgaben- und Sparverhalten des Haushalts- und Unternehmenssektors und damit für die Entwicklung der Inlandsnachfrage (Konsum und Investitionen). Dabei zeigen sich sehr unterschiedliche Muste...more

In a special chapter ("Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging") of the wiiw Forecast "Recovery: Limp and Battered", the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain). The burden of the build-up of private sector debt before the crisis has important consequences for spending and savings behaviour of households and enterprises and hence for the development of domestic demand (consumption and investment). In this resp...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Recovery – in Low Gear across Tough Terrain, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe. All Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries will return to growth in 2011. The post-crisis GDP growth will be slower than before and not suffice to generate additional jobs. The role of external demand gradually weakens, while both household consumption and gross fixed inves...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Will exports prevail over austerity?, analyses current economic situation and medium-term forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe, and China The Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies will experience on average a minor rebound of economic growth to 1% in 2010 which will speed up to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. GDP growth will be higher in the CIS countries and in Turkey, about average in the Central European N...more

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latest Analyses and Forecasts. The report, titled Crisis Is Over, but Problems Loom Ahead, analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Most countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe have emerged from the trough of the crisis already at the end of 2009. Several leading indicators point to a modest upswing. All countries in the regio...more